Business Energy Guide
Are business energy prices going up in January 2027?
You may have seen Martin Lewis or other news coverage warning that household energy prices are currently forecast to rise sharply from 1 January 2027.
The latest forecast published by MoneySavingExpert puts the potential increase at around 24.9%.
But this does not mean every business energy bill or commercial energy contract will increase by 24.9% in January.
The forecast relates to the domestic Energy Price Cap. Business energy contracts are not protected by the domestic Energy Price Cap and commercial contracts work differently.
If your business is already in a fixed rate energy contract, the January domestic Price Cap change does not simply increase your agreed fixed unit rate and standing charge by 24.9%.
Key answer
Domestic forecast ≠ 24.9% business energy increase
The January forecast is for the domestic Energy Price Cap. It is not a 24.9% increase being applied to every UK business energy contract.
The Best Energy Rates Ltd is an independent business energy broker. We are not Ofgem, MoneySavingExpert or any energy supplier. Last checked: 20 September 2026.
Are business energy prices going up 24.9% in January 2027?
No. The 24.9% figure currently being reported is a forecast for the domestic Energy Price Cap from 1 January 2027.
It does not mean business energy contracts are automatically increasing by 24.9%.
Business energy contracts are not covered by the domestic Energy Price Cap.
If your business has an existing fixed rate contract, your agreed fixed unit rate and standing charge do not simply increase by 24.9% because the domestic Price Cap changes.
However, businesses looking for a new contract or approaching renewal should still pay attention to energy market conditions because wholesale energy costs can affect the commercial prices available when suppliers quote new contracts.
What is Martin Lewis currently forecasting for January 2027?
As checked on 20 September 2026, MoneySavingExpert is showing an average forecast increase of 24.9% in the domestic Energy Price Cap for the period 1 January to 31 March 2027.
1 October – 31 December 2026
Confirmed
£1,723
Typical domestic figure per year
1 January – 31 March 2027
Forecast — not yet confirmed
£2,152
Forecast typical domestic figure per year
£2,152 and 24.9% are forecasts. They are not confirmed figures. The actual January 2027 cap will be announced by Ofgem by 25 November 2026.
Has the January 2027 Energy Price Cap been confirmed?
No.
The January 2027 Energy Price Cap has not yet been confirmed. Ofgem says the Price Cap covering 1 January to 31 March 2027 is due to be announced by 25 November 2026.
The 24.9% figure is therefore a forecast and could change before Ofgem announces the actual cap.
This distinction matters. Do not make business decisions on the assumption that the domestic January increase is already confirmed at exactly 24.9%.
We will update this page when Ofgem publishes the confirmed January 2027 Energy Price Cap.
Does the Energy Price Cap apply to business energy contracts?
No. Ofgem explicitly states that business energy contracts are not protected by the domestic Energy Price Cap.
The Energy Price Cap protects eligible domestic customers on standard variable or default tariffs. Business energy is contracted differently.
A business may be on:
- A fixed rate contract
- A variable rate contract
- Out of contract rates
- Deemed rates
- A rollover or evergreen contract
- A flexible contract
The price a business pays therefore depends on its own commercial contract and circumstances rather than the domestic Energy Price Cap.
I'm in a fixed business energy contract. Will my rates go up 24.9% in January?
No, not simply because the domestic Energy Price Cap changes.
Ofgem describes a fixed rate business contract as one where the unit rates and standing charges are fixed for the length of the contract.
If your business has an existing fixed rate contract, check:
- Your contract end date
- Your agreed unit rate or rates
- Your standing charge
- Your contract terms
- Any separately identified pass through or other variable charges that may apply under your particular contract
Some commercial contracts can contain pass through or separately adjustable charges. A domestic Price Cap increase does not automatically rewrite an existing commercial fixed contract by the same percentage.
An example of what the January forecast means for a business
Imagine a business has a fixed electricity contract running until 30 September 2027.
Its domestic customers may see headlines in January 2027 about a large increase in the household Energy Price Cap.
That does not mean the business supplier simply adds 24.9% to the business's agreed fixed electricity unit rate on 1 January.
The business remains subject to the pricing terms of its commercial contract.
The position becomes different when the business approaches the end of that contract and needs to agree a new one. At that point, the commercial prices available will reflect the market conditions at the time of renewal — not the domestic Price Cap.
Should I fix my business energy because of the January 2027 forecast?
The domestic 24.9% forecast alone is not enough to decide whether a business should fix.
A business energy decision should be based on:
- Your current contract
- Your end date
- Your current rates
- Your annual consumption
- The commercial quotations available to you
- Contract length
- Your attitude to price certainty
- Relevant contract terms
The domestic Price Cap forecast can provide useful context about the wider energy market, but it is not your business tariff.
What should a business owner actually do?
First, check whether you are already in a fixed business energy contract.
If you are, find the contract end date and check the pricing terms.
If your contract still has time left to run, do not assume the January domestic Price Cap forecast changes your agreed commercial rates.
If your contract is approaching its end date, compare actual commercial renewal prices rather than trying to apply the domestic 24.9% forecast to your existing rates.
If you are already on variable, deemed or out of contract rates, check what you are currently paying.
The Best Energy Rates can check a business energy bill and tell you:
- What rates you are currently paying
- Whether the bill appears to show fixed, variable, deemed or out of contract pricing
- Your standing charge
- Your unit rate or rates
- Your contract position where the information is available
- What current fixed options are available to compare
What about the October 2026 Energy Price Cap increase?
Ofgem has already confirmed a domestic Energy Price Cap increase for the period 1 October to 31 December 2026. That increase is separate from the current January 2027 forecast.
We have already explained what the October change means for businesses here:
January 2027 Business Energy Price FAQs
Are business energy prices going up 24.9% in January 2027?▾
Not automatically. The 24.9% figure currently being reported is a forecast increase in the domestic Energy Price Cap. Business energy contracts are not covered by the domestic Price Cap, so it does not mean every business contract will increase by 24.9%.
Does Martin Lewis's 24% energy price warning apply to businesses?▾
The forecast being discussed by Martin Lewis and MoneySavingExpert relates to the domestic Energy Price Cap. It does not directly set the prices charged under business energy contracts.
Has the January 2027 Energy Price Cap been confirmed?▾
No. The 24.9% January figure is currently a forecast. Ofgem says the Price Cap for 1 January to 31 March 2027 is due to be announced by 25 November 2026.
What is the current January 2027 Energy Price Cap forecast?▾
As checked on 20 September 2026, MoneySavingExpert is showing an average forecast increase of 24.9%, taking its typical domestic figure from £1,723 for October to December 2026 to approximately £2,152 for January to March 2027. The January figure is not yet confirmed.
Does the Energy Price Cap apply to businesses?▾
No. Ofgem states that business energy contracts are not protected by the domestic Energy Price Cap.
Will my fixed business electricity rate increase by 24.9% in January?▾
Not because of the domestic Price Cap. An existing fixed business contract is governed by its commercial contract terms. The domestic Price Cap forecast does not automatically add 24.9% to an agreed fixed business electricity rate.
Will my fixed business gas rate increase by 24.9% in January?▾
Not because of the domestic Price Cap. Business gas contracts are not covered by the domestic Energy Price Cap. Check the pricing terms of your individual commercial contract.
Can my business standing charge increase in January?▾
It depends on your commercial contract. A domestic Price Cap increase does not automatically increase a fixed business standing charge. Check whether your standing charge is fixed and whether your contract contains any separately adjustable charges.
What if my business energy contract ends in January 2027?▾
You will need to consider the commercial renewal or switching options available for your actual contract end date. The domestic Price Cap does not set your renewal price, although wider wholesale market conditions can influence commercial quotations.
What if my business contract ends later in 2027?▾
Your existing contract continues according to its terms until its end date. When you approach renewal, compare actual commercial prices available at that time rather than applying the domestic Price Cap forecast to your current rates.
Does the Price Cap protect business variable rates?▾
No. Business energy contracts are not protected by the domestic Energy Price Cap. Variable business rates are governed by the terms of the commercial tariff.
Are business out of contract rates capped?▾
Not by the domestic Energy Price Cap. Some suppliers move businesses onto out of contract rates when a fixed term ends, and Ofgem says these rates are usually more expensive than fixed term contracts.
Are deemed business energy rates protected by the Price Cap?▾
No. A business energy contract is not protected by the domestic Energy Price Cap. Ofgem says deemed business rates are usually higher than negotiated contract rates.
Why can business prices change if the domestic Price Cap does not apply?▾
Domestic and commercial energy pricing are separate, but both can be affected by underlying energy market costs. Wholesale energy prices can influence the commercial rates suppliers offer for new business contracts without the domestic Price Cap directly applying to those contracts.
Should I fix my business energy before January 2027?▾
Do not make that decision solely because of the domestic 24.9% forecast. Check your existing contract, end date, consumption, current rates and actual commercial quotations before deciding whether and when to agree a new contract.
How do I know whether my business energy contract is fixed?▾
Check your contract and latest bill for your tariff or product, unit rates, standing charge and contract end date. If you are unsure, your supplier or broker should be able to confirm your current contract position.
Can The Best Energy Rates check whether the January increase affects me?▾
Yes. Send us your latest business energy bill and, where available, your contract or renewal notice. We can check your current rates and contract position and explain what is relevant to your business.
Will this page be updated when Ofgem confirms the January cap?▾
Yes. The January 2027 domestic Energy Price Cap is currently a forecast. This page will be updated when Ofgem publishes the confirmed figure.
Official sources
- MoneySavingExpert current Price Cap forecast
- Martin Lewis / MoneySavingExpert January forecast coverage
- Ofgem October 2026 Price Cap and January announcement date
- Ofgem Price Cap explanation and business exclusion
- Ofgem business energy contract guidance
- Ofgem information for customers not protected by the Price Cap
Worried the January energy increase affects your business?
Don't assume a domestic energy headline applies to your commercial contract. Send us your latest business energy bill and we can check what you are currently paying and where you are in your contract.